Strategy & Economics

UAE shows resilience amid Middle East energy crisis

The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones—more than any other country in this conflict. Every single target was civilian: airports, terminals, refineries, gas processing plants, residential areas, shopping malls, and most recently, the Barakah nuclear power plant.

First, resilience matters a great deal—it may seem expensive until the day you need it, and when you need it, it becomes priceless. Second, AI must be built in, not bolted on; in a crisis, the speed of insight and the speed of decision-making is the difference between continuity and disruption.

Third, energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce. It is about routes, access, storage, and redundancy. Right now, too much of the world’s energy still moves through too few chokepoints. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and it is why we moved ahead with our second pipeline in 2025. Today it’s already almost 50% complete, and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027.

Read the full piece — "UAE shows resilience amid Middle East energy crisis"

A tale of two economies

The U.S. economy got a bucket of good news in the past month. Growth in Q1 was better than expected—hitting 2%—and early tracking has raised the GDP growth forecast for Q2 to a hearty 2.4%. That puts the annual pace of expansion at 2.2%, which may seem like decimal point minutia, but signals gathering momentum above the psychologically important "2% threshold".

The Q2 upgrade reflects recent upside surprises from the consumer, coupled with ongoing strength in AI investment and sizeable government spending. With a higher baseline, risks to the outlook are now viewed as broadly balanced—versus tilted to the downside previously.

Inflation continues to be a problem—the long-held view that inflation would remain sticky with upside risks holds. But the labor market is stable, now even outside of health care. That said, US growth is still likely to surpass all developed markets in 2026.

Read the full briefing — "May Monthly Executive Briefing: A tale of two economies"

Positivity isn’t always naivete

In this special crossover edition with Macro Minutes, Lori Calvasina joins Blake Gwinn in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed.

"I do not think markets are complacent. I can tell you just from having this conversation there’s concern, there is wariness—but markets are also listening to what companies are saying. They’re referring to the playbooks that they put into place most recently around tariffs. They’re talking about supply chain management. We’re also noticing conversations about inventories and hedges—I call these collectively ‘buffers,’" says Lori Calvasina.

On the equity outlook, Calvasina adds: "We have spent a lot of time thinking about the two sides of the economy—the fast lane, the AI lane, and the slow lane impacted by the Middle East—taking both into account from both an earnings and valuation perspective. I can still get you 7.7% appreciation in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months very easily".

On rates, Blake Gwinn notes: "We’ve taken out some of the dovish bias, and now we are pricing something that looks a lot more like a flat distribution. I think those two sides are pretty evenly balanced, and the markets are pretty well reflecting that. So I don’t see things as unfairly priced".

On the Fed: "A lot of that is simply because the Fed is going to be, for better or worse, a little boring for the time being. We have the Fed on hold for the rest of the year," says Gwinn.

Listen to the full episode — "Positivity isn't always naivete"